Are we headed for a Stalled Engines world? If you’re asking what that is? Read on!
In a few short weeks, the coronavirus pandemic has changed everything: the way we move, act, and think. On some days, I believe it; on others, not quite. The pandemic seems to have just heightened a different aspect of reality that was covert. And now, some invisible force just stirred up a lot of the injustices, wrongdoings, and hurts of the current global system. As a result, the world seems to have slowed down to the bare minimum. It is as if, our engines have stalled. So, are we headed for a Stalled Engines world?
Nevertheless, the ‘system’ – the one that absolutely needed to change but which no two people can define alike – has been brought to its knees. Today, many individuals have come to the edge of the waterfall. Suddenly, we are staring at the vastness of the water amazed but also incredibly terrified. We are trying to preserve lives and also trying to figure out how to create a new normal – one that would work for a lot more people than was the case before.
The world’s Great Dilemma.
Post Map
But, someone called it.
In this post, I revisit the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds report released in 2012.
I remembered this report a couple of months ago when the word ‘black swan’ kept popping in my head. However, I could not remember why I knew that phrasing. But, when one of my professors from back in the day reached out to me, it clicked! I remembered taking Global Economy and being mighty fascinated by the material we were engaging with and consuming. This report, in particular, seemed so odd to my business-oriented mind. It was very informative when it came to what the future could look like for businesses and countries. But, its guestimates were also very unsettling. Yes, here is where we insert all the praise for a liberal arts education. To be honest, it is one of the best gifts my parents inadvertently allowed me to choose.
Anyway, this report by the NIC had the purpose of stimulating thinking about the changes that characterize the world we lived in almost a decade ago, the possible global trajectories and its implications. If you would like to read this report, feel free to check it out here.
Today, I will briefly touch on the worst-case scenario in the report, Stalled Engines – one of the four potential world outcomes.
Why Stalled Engines?
The way 2020 started and with everything that is happening, it seems like a much closer fit. You can tell me if you disagree after you read the report.
In this potential world, multilateralism will come to a halt following a worldwide pandemic. “The US and Europe are no longer capable nor interested in sustaining global leadership.” “The US political system fails to address its fiscal challenges and consequently economic policy and performance drift. The European project unravels… More nationalist, even nativist, parties rise to claim positions of influence in coalition governments.”
Are you convinced yet?
No? Ok.
“As pressures grow everywhere for disengagement and protectionism, the global governance system is unable to cope with a widespread pandemic that triggers panic. Rich countries wall themselves off from many developing and poor countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. By disrupting international travel and trade, the severe pandemic helps to stall out, but does not kill globalization.”
Excerpt from NIC Global Trends 2030 reports. See here
The ‘severe pandemic’ is something we can attest to because of what has become our reality.
“No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur. An easily transmissible novel respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than one percent of its victims is among the most disruptive events possible. Such an outbreak could result in millions of people suffering and dying in every corner of the world in less than six months.”
Excerpt from NIC Global Trends 2030 reports. See here
“Rich countries panic and try to isolate poorer countries where the outbreak started and is more severe. Resentments build between East and West and North and South.”
Excerpt from NIC Global Trends 2030 reports. See here
I am not making these things up; you should read the report.
A failure to prepare is preparing to fail
I hope you have read this report, or at least skimmed it! Because, as I re-read it, I could not help but wonder who saw this report and adjusted their approach to governance or socioeconomic growth. I am not sure why that I important but I just wonder because the warning signs were out there. The responses we see as a result of this crisis do not quite show that we were vaguely ready – or prepared. Why was that?
I imagine for many, the Stalled Engines world was a tad too extreme to happen, and yet here we are today. One can argue we are experiencing some variation of it and likely to bulldoze into that as a new normal, at least for the West.
PS
I would have done cartwheels over this report except they were quite wrong about Africa. It was the standard doom and gloom in many of the alternate worlds and that’s not our portion, thank you very much.
So far, the predictions about the devastation to poor developing countries do not quite hold so I cannot help them there. They were, however, right about the West and Global North’s reaction to shut off from us, even though…
Anyway, in the grand scheme of things, this line of conversation is tired so let me hop out of the car now. There is little usefulness in bashing right now. What might be important is that as we look to get these stalled engines running again. For that, a few lessons stand out to keep in mind.
Few lessons from the pandemic and ‘Stalled Engines’ collision train, so far
- Nobody can do development for you. It is the country that has to bring about that has to believe in change; it is the country that has to make the policy changes; it is the country that has to monitor the implementation of any changes; it is the country that has to make the decisions about where to invest public resources; it is the country that has to vehemently be against the status quo.
- We must embrace sustainable development and reject inequality – the dearth of social protection services on this side of the world has become even more evident. How the haves and the have nots can respond to the pandemic tells a lot about the global order and the levels of priority we place on social welfare in different parts of the world, for instance. Significant advancements in poverty alleviation, for instance, are under massive threats of reversal.
- Where there is political will, things will get done. All of a sudden, financial resources have been made available to tackle the social and economic challenges caused by the pandemic. The 1.5 trillion a year needed in investment each year to achieve the SDG no longer sounds terrifying. In essence, if we want to shift the needle, we can find a way to do so.
- Life is fleeting and we are especially failing those for whom their journey is much shorter than the average lifespan…
What I enjoyed this week:
Episode Description: Hannah Ryder is an economist by training, a former diplomat, and has close to 20 years of experience in international development. She is the founder and CEO of Development Reimagined, a pioneering international development consultancy firm and the first Kenyan wholly foreign-owned enterprise in Beijing.
You can find it on any other podcast platform if Spotify is not your jam
What I’m reading:
A pre-pandemic article from some development professionals that outlines how to make development research more inclusive and respectful. Not bad at all. Check it out here.
Thanks for stopping by!
Oh, if you did not get a chance to be humbled by my last post, check it out here. It’s a free quiz generator so if we’ve met the limit by the time you see this, sorry. You can find check out my other posts as well and be courteous, leave a note before you sign off. 🙂
Yours truly,
Noelle Wonders
Noelle Wonders
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