Why governance in Africa is an economic matter

Governance in Africa is an economic matter.

States that make heavy use of overt coercion and brutality often do so because they cannot exercise proper authority. They have what Michael Mann labels “despotic power” but not “infrastructural power” to penetrate and shape society. This was true of both the colonial African state and the independent countries that emerged after the end of colonial rule.

Francis Fukuyama, Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy, 2014

Where is the lie?

Over the past month, a lot of people – those who care enough to identify, understand, empathize, and condemn suffering – have gone through the wringer.

#AfricaisBleeding has been trending because many African countries are displaying the forceful brunt of their oppressive, feeble, and illiberal democracies. I use democracy very loosely. One such case is in Nigeria with the #EndSars #EndBadGovernanceNow movement. If you don’t already know what’s happening in Nigeria, read Chimamanda’s take here; read from Washington Post here; check out Elle magazine’s feature here; or let Trevor Noah amuse you, educatively.

Now that we are all on the same page…

Situating Nigeria in Sub-Saharan Africa’s burgeoning population

According to the Economist, Africa’s population is growing at some 2.7% a year. This is two times more than in South Asia (1.2%) and Latin America (0.9%). Translation, sub-Saharan Africa is adding the entire population of France every two years. That is, by the way, more than the population of the United Kingdom, as well as it is Italy. Yes, it’s a lot.

Among the ten largest countries globally, Nigeria is growing the most rapidly. The population of Nigeria, currently 7^th largest in the world, is projected to exceed that of the United States to become the world’s third-largest country in the world by 2050, with an estimated 402 million people. Crazy? Consider then that Nigeria’s population is currently about 200 million… This means it’s about to double in size in the next two decades, mainly in its cities (read Lagos).

Unsurprisingly, the average age in Nigeria is 18years (somewhere between 17.5 – 17.9 actually but let’s be serious). Nearly 70% of Nigeria’s population is below the age of 35. And yet, leadership is all but a reflection of this shifting demographic – proper uncles and a few aunties in there. In other places, we have seen young leaders taking up major positions (think Trudeau and even David Cameron). Yet on the African continent, Rwanda is perhaps the only one championing the cause of a younger political class. Even that, the average of its cabinet is 47 years old.

Why a burgeoning population and absent opportunity is a bad mix

Governance in Africa is an economic matter. The global burden of poverty is highly concentrated in Africa (I’m hurt that you are not surprised!). What may be surprising – at least to me – is that this burden is actually concentrated largely in just two countries – Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – where more than 150 million people live in extreme poverty.

A combination of poverty and a rising youth population should not be taken for granted in our technology-powered world. It’s been said severally that the risks associated with large numbers of digitally connected youths with no jobs are high. For one, they are unlikely to – and most likely will not – sit twiddling their thumbs waiting for change; they will demand it. Especially when you consider that the post-independence consensus around freedom, liberty, success, equality, blah blah has waned. And as a result, the promised ‘collective relief’ of Africa’s oppressed population has yet to be felt by the majority. This is true for Nigeria as it is Ghana, Cote D’Ivoire, and the others. For this alone, we should understand that governance in Africa is an economic matter.

Remember remember the Arab Spring

After Tunisian street vendor Mohammed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in December 2010, the Arab Spring erupted across the region. From Tunisia, the protests then spread to six other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, and Morocco, among others. Unrest was rife.

The youth who perceived that they had no future different from that of their parents overthrew leaders and ‘destabilised’ countries in a matter of weeks. This highlights how quickly such tensions can spill over, even into political collapse.

Youth in leadership: the coconut head generation

Evidently, Nigeria’s #coconutheads are tired and fed up. The ‘lazy generation’ tag as we have seen is in fact a poor trope. Because, their mere existence – thriving or not – is a revolt against the status quo of dysfunction. The fact that people still hustle and somehow make it – to varying degrees – is a testament to the unrelenting hard work of Nigeria’s youth. When we consider the changing demographic, the effects of climate change, and increasing inequality, if young people do not fulfill their potential, what lies ahead should be terrifying.

Given its strategic location as the giant of Africa, Nigeria is so far a missed development opportunity, where the shortcomings of poverty and crime demonstrate, and intensify, the costs of weak governance. And it is its youth that carries this intolerable burden. A burden that has manifested into unemployment, lack of investment in human capital, and a security crisis. The structure of the economy means that many young Nigerians, especially if they are low-skilled, have almost no prospect of decent employment.

Cue 419 and the fraudulent activities a lot of people so easily claim are synonymous with thriving young Nigerian men. But perhaps a more interesting line of thought follows marginally from the book Prosperity Paradox. It is the idea that people who engage in such activities – as is the case for corrupt persons – know that they should not do that. But, they do it anyway. Why? Their decision appears to be a response to scarcity. Thus, it’s not someone’s theoretical ‘good governance’ prize that they will eat. If you think about it, it is borderline a rational decision, but I digress.

Moving forward: Governance in Africa is an economic matter

Dealing with the root cause of Nigeria’s socio-economic malaise, as with other African countries, will demand widespread systemic actions. These include improving the allocation and distribution of oil rents, and the diversification of its economic basket. Both factors analysts believe will require unseen ‘levels of political will, breaking and reshaping corrupt systems, and investment in both hard and soft educational and vocational infrastructure.’ Talk about a big task!

To begin to achieve those goals, African elites must be willing to prioritize economic growth over political power. And thus demonstrate to the world that “business as usual,” in which politics often presides over economics, is bygone. This will be evident in demonstrated support for the private sector and entrepreneurs.

Dramatic much…

For real though, the African continent cannot afford indecision or easy decisions. It is not an option for the 85% of Africans who live on less than US$5.50 per day. Considering that the previous statement was pre-Covid-19, the economic realities of Africa’s populations should be even more pressing. It is one reason why I say governance in Africa is an economic matter.

Yes, we do need institutions that will create the conditions that allow entrepreneurs to scale up, investors to ‘feel secure’, and corruption rooted out; there is no argument there. But speaking for myself, I am a little exhausted with that rhetoric alone. Because who would create these conditions? The people that stand to benefit from things not working right? Certainly not. We are going to have to find other ways to innovate into different sets of solutions.

Point of departure

Perhaps our failure is largely our inability to place pragmatism over principle. We get caught in battles over ideology and alignments, forgetting what the real issues and task at hand is.

As a certified and really voluntold member of the younger generation, I think we all need to assume a sense of crisis and thus a laser-focus on getting things done. We need to be vehement innovators – business, political and economic innovators. A path fuelled by an unrelenting desire to make new or existing products more accessible (less complex and more affordable) to the general population.

As people like Oby Ezekwesili have said, our politics is not working for us and we need good politics not just for governance but also for our economics to work right too. Which comes first is a bit of a chicken and egg problem but so far, we seem to have tried the ‘good politics first’ and it’s not working as well. It may very well be time to try focusing on systemic economic changes that will allow the creation of jobs, the attraction of investment, and the scaling up of SMMEs – and not just by focusing on one business. We need to test the idea that governance in Africa is an economic matter.

Africa has a long way to go and governments, as we see in Nigeria, don’t make it easy but alas, we will prevail. We shall because we must. If you disagree, the video below is for you.

The #EndSars movement is so much more than police brutality. It is an embodiment of decades of a failed and irresponsive system. Nigeria needs to do better, and so must Zimbabwe, Tanzania, DRC…

What I am listening to? A podcast that plays at the intersection of governance in Africa being an economic matter…

Tobi Lawson’s podcasts – he probes quite a bit and I love the questions, so far! Check them out here.

Also, an oldie but goodie you can read: https://noellewonders.com/africa-is-poor-because-of-bad-policy-choices/

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Noelle Wonders

Marie-Noelle is the creator and curator of Noelle Wonders - a blog created to pose questions, exchange ideas, explore power asymmetries, and humanize topics around growth and development.

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